Sundarshan+Journal

__**Chapter 1 - Human Kind and Climate: Essay - Sunday August 29, 2010**__ “Not only is [global warming] real, it's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster.” The above quote by Barack Obama (speech, April 3, 2006) is example of the increased awareness of the global warming phenomenon around the world. But, despite the increased publicity, many are still doubtful of the theories because of the lack of readily or easily observable damages of global warming. However, we must remember that the weather – or the chaotic day to day forecast of rain, sun, etc. – is not an accurate gage for the long term global warming theory. Climate – an average of weather records over long periods (typically 5-10 years) – provides more accurate evidences towards the global warming argument (Archer 1).

The activity that is key and central to diagnosing the earth regarding the global warming phenomenon is the forecasting of climate change. The most important aspect of climate (and the aspect that we focus on for global warming) is temperature. The sun is the source of heat for our planet. However, if the earth were to absorb all of the heat from the sun, then it would be too warm to support life as we know it. Thus, a portion of the solar energy that travels to the earth from the sun has to be bounced back into space. This is done with the help of the physics and optics principle of reflection. Natural features like glaciers, clouds, desserts, etc. are especially apt in reflecting solar energy (sunlight) back through the atmosphere into space (Archer 3). The remainder of heat that remains inside our atmosphere contributes to the temperature of earth, which is in turn partially responsible for determining the overall climate of our planet. Scientists use climate data accumulated over generations to perform a comparative analysis and determine climate trends. Researchers then use statistical analyses to forecast climate change, or the climate of the future.

The majority of the population may agree with the fact that the earth is warming. However, skeptics will pose the question, “What role do humans play in climate change? What did we do to contribute to the natural disaster?” The answer to such questions lies in the concepts related to carbon and energy. Fossil fuels are the products of buried organic remains, whose carbon has been converted into fuels such as natural gas, oil and coal (Archer 4). These are the main source of energy in today’s world powering almost all motorized or electrically operated devices in cities and rural areas alike. This widespread use of combustion fuels was safe for a period. However, with the advances in modern technology, the demands for cars, electronics, and electrical power have grown, along with fossil fuel usage. The increased use of fossil fuels thus causes an increase in carbon emissions. Large amounts of carbon emissions can also be traced to the industry of fertilizer manufacturing, which is a key aspect of modern agriculture (Archer 4). All of this excess carbon subsequently builds up in our atmosphere, preventing a portion of reflected solar heat to exit our atmosphere. This phenomenon is known as the green house effect, and is the predicted cause of temperature rises on earth as well as man’s contribution to global warming.

Sure, global warming is a real “man-made natural disaster” (Obama), but are we really at risk? Does climate change really pose a threat to human lifestyle, or is it just another environmental movement led by lobbyists and grass roots groups? The first method of assessing the risk is to examine the validated scientific research. Hundreds of researchers are conducting reliable projects that show a potential temperature rise of 2-5 degrees by the year 2100 (Archer 5). In addition, time tables and trend charts show a continuing increase in the melting of glaciers, rising of the sea level, and of course, increase in temperature. The second method of assessing the risk deals with the principles of economics, or in other words, a comparative analysis of the predicted cost of living through global warming and predicted costs of avoiding climate change (Archer 5). We will have to account for various profits and loss calculations in determining whether or not taking action against climate change is worth the costs of time, money, and billions of hours of human effort.

All in all, the scientific world is confident that global warming is a true phenomenon that has already gripped the peoples of earth. The question now is what actions to take to prevent such a drastic climate change, if any. Hopefully, with the modern technology and scientific rationales, human-kind will make the correct decision to save planet earth (Archer 6).

Archer, David. //Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast.// Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2007. Print. //Quotes on Global Warming.// Notable Quotes, 2010. Web. 29 Aug. 2010. .
 * Bibliography**

__**Habitable Planet Video**__ **- Response Journal Entry - Tuesday September 7, 2010** In my first year of high school, a tornado passed through Manhattan, Kansas, where I lived at that time. As my family and I took shelter in our basement, we heard a sound similar to the rushing sound of a jet engine. We were afraid that the tornado passed through our house. Luckily however, the tornado missed us and passed ¼ of a mile to the East of us. Humans often think of these types of weather events to be freak incidents that are only good to cause harm. However, scientists all over the world are striving to understand these weather incidents and learn how they affect our climate.

Scientists Peter Tans and Kerry Emanuel are two such researchers. Peter Tans is investigating on the rising temperature of the globe in correlation to the global warming theory. Key to this theory is the notion that human activity is causing carbon dioxide levels to increase worldwide. Thus, Tans is researching to find out whether or not increased emissions are causing carbon dioxide levels to increase, and to what extent to these increases affect the climate of the world. Kerry Emanuel on the other hand, unlike most atmospheric researchers in recent years, is not concerned with carbon dioxide at all. Emanuel has noticed scientists’ unanimous neglect and ignorance of hurricanes. Thus far, hurricanes have been categorized as freak tropical storms. However, Emanuel thinks otherwise. He is researching to find out whether or not hurricanes have a profound impact on the global climate. One key aspect that both of these scientists’ research questions have in common is climate. Both Tans and Emanuel are concerned with finding the cause of the earth’s change in climate. However, Tans is focusing on the theory that man is the cause of this change, while Emanuel zones in on a natural cause.

Peter Tans is primarily focused on gathering and analyzing field data in order to answer his research question. Tans tries to find trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over a long period to chart the green house gas’ increase. He also compares the carbon dioxide levels in different geographical regions, such as cities and forests, in order to pin point the human impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. While Tans focuses on data, Kerry Emanuel is more interested in virtual models of hurricanes. These models allow him to simulate hurricanes of varying strength and then analyze the virtual aftermath in the earth’s atmosphere. As one can see, the two scientists’ methodologies are radically different. The reason for this is the nature of their research topics. Tans is focused on air, a substance that is readily available at all times. Tans also has the tools to measure and analyze atmospheric air due to his connections with NOAA. Kerry Emanuel on the other hand is focusing on hurricanes. Hurricanes are rather radical and unpredictable storms, and thus, it is hard to get regular data from them. Even if hurricanes were readily available, their dangerous nature makes it impossible for Emanuel to gather reliable, consistent data.

As one can see, weather, climate, and storms associated with the former are not simply freak accidents of nature destined to cause harm to humans. Rather they may be keys to unlocking predictions to the future of the global climate. Scientists have to think with an open mind to find appropriate research questions and design appropriate methodologies in order to achieve their goals.

Kerry Emanuel and his researchers have been conducting valuable research on the nature and properties of hurricanes. They pose a bold new theory that deviates away from the old assumptions that hurricanes are simply freak tropical storms. Emanuel and his colleagues have suggested that hurricanes churn up the ocean waters, and as a result, warm the temperature of the surface waters of oceans. Thus, Emanuel infers that hurricanes have a direct effect on the global climate, and that these storms may even play a large part in the global warming phenomenon. This base of research gives fuel to many research ideas that we as students can undertake and perform.
 * __First Steps Toward Completing a Research Project__ - Journal Response on Topic IV: Hurricanes - Tuesday September 21, 2010**

In order to answer his research question, “Do Hurricanes have a profound impact on the global climate and global warming?”, Emanuel has to analyze hurricanes very closely. He does this by compiling hurricane data and using this data in order to formulate a model. These models may be historical, in that they show a trend in hurricanes and surface water temperatures over past years. They may also be practical models, that show a hurricane in action. In the video entitled, “The Habitable Planet,” one can see this model playing out a miniature version of a hurricane in real time. However, as lower level researchers, we must focus on the third type of model that Emanuel uses. Emanuel and his researchers have devised a model that incorporates their understanding of the nature of hurricanes, previous hurricane data, and trends in the atmosphere, temperatures, and surface water temperatures in order to predict the strength and frequency of hurricanes in the 2010 season. The data output from this model is shown below:

We as researchers can undertake a project to determine the accuracy of Kerry Emanuel’s model. To do this, we must gather actual tropical storm and hurricane data during the 2010 hurricane season and compare it to Emanuel’s proposed frequencies. Thus, we will be able to tell whether Kerry Emanuel’s model was successful at predicting the hurricane season.
 * **Type/Strength of Hurricane** || **Frequency** ||
 * Tropical Storms || 14-28 ||
 * Hurricanes || 8-14 ||
 * Major Hurricanes || 3-7 ||

__**Research on the Causes of Hurricane Formation Related to the Sahara Desert**__ **- October 6, 2010**  Why do hurricanes start on the coast of the Sahara desert? First, let us start off by characterizing the climate of the Sahara desert region. Areas round 30o N latitude are traditionally areas of low pressure. This means that regions like the Sahara desert are dominated by varying winds and hot, dry weather. The North African desert in particular is so hot that it fuels a jet stream of air that flows in an East to West direction. This jet contributes to plumes of hot air that spiral up and move westward along the Sahara desserts. These plumes may manifest themselves as thunderstorms or dust storms, depending on the season. When these storms move off the coast of Africa, they pick up immense amounts of moisture and are fueled intensely by the warm, humid air. Thus, tropical depressions and hurricanes are formed. To see this process in action, check out Isaac's Journal page with has a detailed animation showing the process. My hats off to you Isaac! :)

This topic is not only intriguing for us students, but it is also a fascination to many meteorologists and scientists. NASA has launched an observational study titled African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary analysis. Researchers are observing and recording African thunderstorms that move into the Atlantic and become hurricanes. This is in an effort to both learn more about the weather patterns and climatic conditions in this part of the world, and also to gain an insight into the formation of major hurricanes.

Rachelle, Oblack. //Hurricane Formation: How Hurricanes for in the Sahara Desert.// About.com, 2010. Web. 6 Oct. 2010. . Dooling, Dave. //Birthplace of Hurricanes.// National Aeronautic and Space Administration, 26 July 2006. Web. 6 Oct. 2010. . //Characteristics of the African Monsoon.// African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses, 2010. Web. 6 Oct. 2010. .

__**Algae affects Hurricanes?**__ **- October 6, 2010** A new study has shown that ocean color affects hurricane strength and frequency. Researchers have found this by studying the tropical storm in regions of the oceans that are covered by algae. This algae turns the color of the sea from blue to green, and has been statistically proven to be in correlation with an increased frequency of hurricanes. Scientists also studied a region of the ocean that was not covered by algae. They found that the sea temperature cools and dry air rises, lowering the frequency of hurricanes in algae depleted areas. Thus, this may be a hint that the photosynthetic capabilities of algae that result in the release of water vapor could be a factor in fueling hurricanes.

Wallis, Paul. //Ocean Color Affects Hurricane Formation.// Digital Journal, 15 Aug. 2010. Web. 6 Oct. 2010. .


 * __Correlation__ __B____etween Dust, Algae, and Hurricanes__ - October 19, 2010**

Australia is having one of the driest years in their history, highlighted by a dust storm that is the worst to hit the nation in 70 years in September of last year. The reason for this exceptionally dry spell in the already driest continent in the world is the cause of El Nino. According to the NOAA, the term El Nino refers to “warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean that impact global weather patterns.” As one can see in the diagram below, the area in the Pacific Ocean near South and North America is significantly warmer in the El Nino season. Thus, the atmospheric moisture naturally follows the warmth, and migrates from the eastern Asian and Australian areas, making these areas drier. Because El Nino is especially strong the past couple of years, Australia has experienced particularly violent dust storms that have covered the major eastern cities such as Melbourne and Sydney.

Okay, Australia is very dry this year; but what does this information have to do with Algae, and more importantly, hurricanes? The dust storms that have blown to Eastern Australia have blow off the coast and created huge plumes in the Pacific atmosphere, as one can see in the figure below. These dust particles will settle down into the ocean in the coming weeks and months. It is important to note that the dust that we are referring to is the arid topsoil of the Australian Outback, a soil that is very rich in iron and other vital minerals for aquatic plant growth. Thus, the settling of dust particles on the Pacific Ocean will naturally spur algae growth.

As we discussed earlier (Journal entry on Oct. 6), algae growth naturally increases the frequency of hurricanes for two reasons. One, the green color of algae affects the overall ocean color, and this color change has been statistically proven to increase the frequency of hurricanes in a particular areas. Secondly, the fact that hurricanes do not form as often in areas without a large algae population, characterized by cool dry air, lets us know that the transpiration by algae may encourage the formation of hurricanes.

__Sources__ Wallis, Paul. //Ocean Color Affects Hurricane Formation.// Digital Journal, 15 Aug. 2010. Web. 6 Oct. 2010. .

//What Is El Nino?// National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2010. Web. 19 Oct. 2010. .

Cummings, Denis. //What Is the Cause and Impact of Australiaâ��s Dust Storm?// Finding Dulcinea, 24 Sep. 2009. Web. 19 Oct. 2010. .

Neddenriep, Kyle. //Australian Dust Storms Could Spawn Massive Algae Growth in Pacific.// The Surf Check, 7 Oct. 2009. Web. 19 Oct. 2010. .

**__Possible Research Questions__** **- November 9, 2010** Sudarshan - I think you are good to go on this topic. A good source for Hurricane data is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml#hurdat
1. How does the spewing of significant amounts of dust into the atmsophere above the Pacific occean east of Australia contribute to algae, and thereby, hurricane formation? > For example: the research question, "What effect does carbon dioxide levels kept at 200 ppm above ambient have on the growth rate of a stand of loblolly pine trees over 17 years ? " will obviously require certain types of information. Be sure to list the types of information and how you will obtain them. 2. Were Kerry Emanuel’s model based hurricane predictions accurate when compared to the data from the 2010 season?
 * 1) Does the question deal with a topic or issue that interests me enough to spark my own thoughts and opinions?
 * I have been researching the nature of hurricanes for the past two months. This exposure has sparked an interest in me about this topic.
 * 1) Is the question easily and fully researchable given the time and resources that you will have access to during the spring semester?
 * Because I will not have time to construct and apply a model to test the nature and characteristics of hurricanes, I will have to rely on the Internet for such information nad data. I have full access to this abundant resource, and the plethora of journal articles, reliable news sources, and websites of research institutions will enable me to collect the appropriate data.
 * 1) What type of information do I need to answer the research question?
 * How much dust is spewed, approx? – weather reports and news articles related to Australian dust and weather patterns
 * What in the dust contributes to algae growth? – Journal Articles, experiment summaries, books
 * How profoundly does algae affect hurricanes? – journal articles
 * 1) Is the scope of this information reasonable? (e.g., can I really research a hurricane model that is currently in use to estimate hurricane intensity and frequency?)
 * Yes. All one needs is the ability to research and find quality resources on the internet and in the library.
 * 1) Given the type and scope of the information that I need, is my question too broad, too narrow, or just right?
 * Because I present a location, a specific natural phenomenon (dust), and a specific variable that affects hurricanes (algae growth), I believe that my question is just right.
 * 1) What sources will have the type of information that I need to answer the research question. Consider whether you will need to collect data and if so what instrumentation will you need, data that has already been collected, journals, books, internet resources, government documents, other researchers)?
 * The data has already been collected through journals, books, internet resources, government documents, and other researchers
 * 1) Can I access these sources?
 * Several of the above are free to the public. I also have access to many other databases through my father, who works at NC State and thus has access to the NCSU databases.
 * 1) Given my answers to the above questions, do I have a good quality research question that I actually will be able to answer by doing research?
 * Yes. I think the scope, topic, and approachability of my question makes it a viable one.

> For example: the research question, "What effect does carbon dioxide levels kept at 200 ppm above ambient have on the growth rate of a stand of loblolly pine trees over 17 years ? " will obviously require certain types of information. Be sure to list the types of information and how you will obtain them.
 * 1) Does the question deal with a topic or issue that interests me enough to spark my own thoughts and opinions?
 * I have been researching the nature of hurricanes for the past two months. As part of this research, I read about Emanuel’s work and about his model to predict hurricanes. I am extremely interested with finding out the success level of Emanuel’s model.
 * 1) Is the question easily and fully researchable given the time and resources that you will have access to during the spring semester?
 * This topic will be extremely time and resource effective. I already have all of the sources of information I need in order to collect data.
 * 1) What type of information do I need to answer the research question?
 * Kerry Emanuel’s predictions and theories about hurricanes: Emanuel’s website.
 * The data for the 2010 hurricane season; internet sources, possibly NASA or the National Weather Service.
 * 1) Is the scope of this information reasonable? (e.g., can I really research a hurricane model that is currently in use to estimate hurricane intensity and frequency?)
 * The scope of the information is indeed reasonable and easy to collect and organize.
 * 1) Given the type and scope of the information that I need, is my question too broad, too narrow, or just right?
 * I feel that this question as it stands may be too narrow. In fact, it seems like a science project for middle school students rather than NCSSM research students. I may have to tie in some other parts to make this question slightly broader and more appealing.
 * 1) What sources will have the type of information that I need to answer the research question. Consider whether you will need to collect data and if so what instrumentation will you need, data that has already been collected, journals, books, internet resources, government documents, other researchers)?
 * The data has already been collected through journals, books, internet resources, government documents, and other researchers
 * 1) Can I access these sources?
 * Several of the above are free to the public. I also have access to many other databases through my father, who works at NC State and thus has access to the NCSU databases.
 * 1) Given my answers to the above questions, do I have a good quality research question that I actually will be able to answer by doing research?
 * I believe that if I can broaden the question and increase its complexity level a bit more, then I shall have a viable question to work with.

3. What are the causes for the recent radical trends in the Indian monsoons? > For example: the research question, "What effect does carbon dioxide levels kept at 200 ppm above ambient have on the growth rate of a stand of loblolly pine trees over 17 years ? " will obviously require certain types of information. Be sure to list the types of information and how you will obtain them.
 * 1) Does the question deal with a topic or issue that interests me enough to spark my own thoughts and opinions?
 * I have been researching the nature of hurricanes and learning about the earth’s climate for the past two months. Thus I am very interested in stark and unexpected climatic changes such as the one above. Also, the fact that I am from India gives me a vested interest in the topic.
 * 1) Is the question easily and fully researchable given the time and resources that you will have access to during the spring semester?
 * I feel that the research for this question is time effective. I should be able to gather a lot of information and data from the Internet.
 * 1) What type of information do I need to answer the research question?
 * Define radical trends and differentiate these with previous trends: data from various internet sources
 * Find possible causes for these trends and validate them
 * 1) Is the scope of this information reasonable? (e.g., can I really research a hurricane model that is currently in use to estimate hurricane intensity and frequency?)
 * The scope of the information is entirely reasonable because of the fact that research is already undergoing. I am just tapping into data.
 * 1) Given the type and scope of the information that I need, is my question too broad, too narrow, or just right?
 * It seems that this is an ok question for now. However, once I begin research, I feel that I may find the question too broad. At that time, I shall narrow the question appropriately.
 * 1) What sources will have the type of information that I need to answer the research question. Consider whether you will need to collect data and if so what instrumentation will you need, data that has already been collected, journals, books, internet resources, government documents, other researchers)?
 * The data has already been collected through journals, books, internet resources, government documents, and other researchers
 * 1) Can I access these sources?
 * Several of the above are free to the public. I also have access to many other databases through my father, who works at NC State and thus has access to the NCSU databases.
 * 1) Given my answers to the above questions, do I have a good quality research question that I actually will be able to answer by doing research?
 * For now, I believe this is a quality research question. However, I may find the question too broad in the future, in which case I will adjust it accordingly.


 * __Exploring the Relationship between Algae and Hurricanes: A Literature Review__**


 * NOTE: The Literature review is in the below document -